spincoinmaster2021|集体回调！债市后续怎么走？

Bond funds are facing a new round of quizzes.

Recently, there has been a sharp decline in the bond market, in which the yield on the 10-year Treasury hit 2% on April 23.Spincoinmaster2021.215%, rising rapidly after hitting the lowest level since the end of April 2002, rising to 2.35% on April 29, the yield on one-year treasury bonds hit 1.6447% on April 26 and also rose to 1.78% at one point.

Prior to this, the management repeatedly called to remind the long-end interest rate debt.Spincoinmaster2021In an interview with the relevant media after trading on April 23, the head of the relevant departments of the central bank mentioned that the yield on long-term treasury bonds will always run within a reasonable range matching the expectations of long-term economic growth, and the duration of long-term restricted bonds with fixed interest rates is long. it is sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, and investors need to attach great importance to interest rate risk.

At the same time, affected by the stock-bond seesaw effect, the equity market has stabilized and improved recently, and the investment sentiment has warmed up, which also affects the performance of the bond market to a certain extent.

80% of bond funds suffer a pullback

Affected by the correction of the bond market, the net worth of bond funds has generally encountered a collective correction in the near future.

Among them, the correction of the long-term bond fund is particularly obvious. From April 23 to April 29, the net value of Boshi Fund and Pengyang Fund's 30-year treasury bond ETF fell by 2.34% and 2.53% respectively. Huatai Baoxing Anyue A, Huiquan Anyang Pure Bond C and other medium-and long-term bond funds also fell by more than 1.5%.

There are also some medium-and short-term bond funds that have experienced relatively large declines. for example, on April 25, the daily net value of Hony distant medium-and short-term bonds A fell by 0.68%, losing nearly three months of income in one day, which attracted market attention. In addition, from April 23 to April 29, the net value of Hony distant medium-and short-term debt A fell for five consecutive days, falling by 0.03%, 0.09%, 0.68%, 0.03% and 0.02% respectively, with a net growth rate of-0.86%.

Then, on the evening of April 25, Hony distant Fund Anchor "good stories Financial" posted in the financial management community that the recent performance was not good. "under the recent market volatility, the manager's investment rhythm has been unstable, resulting in large fluctuations in net worth. I'm really sorry for the bad investment experience." She also said that after this major adjustment, fund managers have also learned from the bitter experience, re-straightened out the rhythm, and then will return to the previous route.

According to Wind statistics, from April 23 to April 29, 2790 debt bases in the whole market fell in varying degrees, accounting for nearly 80%.

For the recent significant adjustment in the bond market, especially the long-end and ultra-long-end varieties that have risen significantly before, Boshi Fund said that although this is related to the central bank's statement and changes in risk appetite, more importantly, in the previous huge rise, long-end interest rates accumulated a large number of trading, the more fragile trading structure, making the volatility of the bond market adjustment significantly magnified. Boshi Fund believes that the smoothest time for the decline in long-end interest rates may have passed, and the bond market will enter a period of shock. However, when the economic fundamentals, especially the property chain, do not observe a trend improvement, the room for upward yield is also limited.

China Europe Fund believes that the adjustment of the current round of long-end interest rates comes from the central bank's concern and potential supply concerns, and what is more noteworthy is that the short-end has also begun to adjust, corresponding to the marginal convergence of funds and the reduction of net financial outflow of large banks. at the same time, we can see that the buying of short-end interest rates by big banks has also significantly decreased or even turned to sell. Considering the peak of net financing of government debt in May, the central bank continued to release 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the pattern of abundant capital of big banks in the early period may be reversed, and the short end may return to the dominant logic of interest margin. Under such circumstances, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being.

Multiple debt bases make frequent announcements.

In fact, due to the correction of the bond market, recently, the debt base due to a large amount of redemption and adjust the accuracy of the net value of the announcement frequently.

According to Wind data statistics, since April 23, there have been eight bond funds in the market due to large redemptions, issued to improve the accuracy of the fund net worth announcement, including Penghua industrial debt, Baijia Baiyi debt, Societe Generale Jiahong one-year fixed bonds and other products, industry insiders believe that the risk of bond market investment and performance-to-price ratio is an important factor for investors to choose to leave.

Recently, a number of fund managers have publicly responded to the bond market pullback and investors' concerns about large redemptions and liquidity issues. On the afternoon of April 26, Wu Yin, the fund manager of the much-discussed Hony distant medium-and short-term debt, issued an urgent apology, saying that with regard to the liquidity that everyone is concerned about, "the medium-and short-term debt I manage has always maintained a controllable portfolio ratio and low leverage, continued to retain a reasonable proportion of cash management assets, and made corresponding preparations in the liquidity management of the products to meet the demand for redemption in a variety of circumstances."

At the same time, whether the large redemptions of bond funds will cause a chain reaction like at the end of 2022, resulting in negative feedback on financial redemptions, has also attracted the attention of many investors.

Shanxi Securities pointed out in the research newspaper that obvious changes have taken place in the current financial management market compared with the financial management chain 2022Q4, including financial market structure, financial management net worth accumulated surplus, financial management whole chain learning effect and so on. In addition, the deep-seated reason for financial redemption is still the expectation of changes or changes in fundamentals and policies, which has caused a profound disturbance or reversal to the bond market. But at present, there is no basis for the above reversal. As a result, financial redemptions may occur, but there is no need to worry about continuous negative feedback and stampede.

The bond market has not yet reversed.

Looking ahead, will the two-year bond bull market be reversed?

Xinyuan Fund believes that due to the previous central bank's repeated prompts on the risk of long-term debt, the superimposed market is generally worried about the possible introduction of incremental policies at the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in April, resulting in a large adjustment in the early bond market. however, at the end of April, the central bank made a net investment of 438 billion yuan through the open market, showing the meaning of care; at the same time, the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee was launched in April, and the market's worries about the policy were eliminated. Coupled with the previous bond market adjustment has been relatively sufficient, institutional demand for bonds re-emerged.

The company believes that the current bond market is in a period of low interest rates and high volatility. On the one hand, the phenomenon of "asset shortage" of financial institutions has not been effectively alleviated, and the strong allocation force has kept the bond market yield at a low level. On the other hand, the cost of the debt side of financial institutions decreases slowly, and the Carry brought by the configuration plate can not meet the overall income requirements of the institution, so the recent market trading has emerged, and the market volatility has also been significantly magnified with the mood.

而在央行释放资金面呵护信号、结合宏观大环境以及资产荒的背景下，鑫元基金认为，当前债市短期不存在反转的基础，近期市场走势恰恰体现了其在低利率情况下的高波动性。但未来二季度政府债券供给的放量或给债市带来一定压力，预计后续债市将重回窄幅震荡格局。

汇安基金绝对收益组基金经理王作舟也分析，工业增加值、工业企业营收同比增速出现反复，基本面延续弱复苏，债市行情尚未反转。5月政府债净融资可能放量，导致出现流动性缺口，短期内资金利率或将上行，债市面临收益率曲线整体上行的风险，但若央行进行充分的流动性呵护，调整空间将较为有限。

基于上述判断，鑫元基金建议，对市场短期应抱有一定谨慎心理，组合保持中性久期，适当控制杠杆，采用杠铃策略维持较高灵活度，中长期可关注长债调整带来的配置价值。

校对：赵燕??