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gameshow| During the year, the average issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit has approached 2.0%. Some institutions believe that there may be little room for further downside.

Home 2024年05月07日 16:02 12 editor

SourceGameshowFinancial federation

As an important tool for debt replenishmentGameshowThe issue of interbank certificates of deposit is still hot.

According to Wind statistics, the net financing size of inter-bank certificates of deposit was 4078 in April.Gameshow.3 billion yuan, compared with the net financing scale of 483 in March.GameshowThere was a marked increase of 20 billion yuan. Among them, the total amount of issuance reached 2.84746 trillion yuan, and the average issuing interest rate was close to 2% to 2.066%. The monthly dimension dropped four times in a row during the year, down from 2.435% at the beginning of the year (369bp).

In addition, the financial union combed found that since April, the yield of inter-bank certificates of deposit of different terms has declined, of which the yield of one-year certificates of deposit has fallen from 2.23% at the beginning of the month to 2.10% 13bp to 2.10%. The yield of 3M certificates of deposit has fallen 8bp to 1.99%. But towards the end of the month, window guidance on banning manual interest payments intensified the pressure on banks to secure deposits, and certificate of deposit interest rates, especially those of big banks, picked up.

In terms of the success rate of issuance, it has declined as a whole. Among them, the success rate of issuing interbank certificates of deposit in the last week of April was only 86.21%, which was significantly lower than that of 91.80% in the previous week. Affected by the increase in the rate of return of large banks, the success rate of issuance of urban commercial banks and agricultural commercial banks decreased significantly.

Some institutions believe that there is sufficient liquidity in the interbank market and there is no pressure on the supply and demand side of funds between financial institutions, which is an important reason for the continuous decline in interest rates on inter-bank certificates of deposit. In addition, the overall slow pace of credit issuance and government bond issuance is also the main driving force for the downside of certificates of deposit.

However, from the perspective of funds at the end of the month, the cross-month market is stable as a whole. On April 30th, with the large investment by the central bank, DR001 went up from 1.83% to 1.94% 11bp to 1.94% from 2.10% to 2.11%, with the average of 6bp and 23bp respectively higher than the previous week. The fluctuation range of R series interest rate of non-bank lending is relatively small, R001 from 1.89% up to 2.00% dint R007 from 2.11% down to 2.09%, the average is higher than the previous week 6bp, 16bp. As a whole, banks are tight rather than silver loose.

In May, some institutions believe that the downward resistance of certificate of deposit interest rates will be strengthened, and there may not be much room for downside, so they can seize the investment opportunities in the short and medium term.

Hu Jianwen, an analyst at Guotai Junan fixed income, said that as a tool for active liabilities of large banks, large banks can control the pace and progress of issuing certificates of deposit, and the current interest rate of certificates of deposit is already much lower than the MLF interest rate, so the central bank's expected management of interest rate risk may make big banks strengthen the issuance of certificates of deposit and prolong the duration of issuance of certificates of deposit at the current time.

gameshow| During the year, the average issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit has approached 2.0%. Some institutions believe that there may be little room for further downside.

At the same time, Hu Jianwen believes that after it is forbidden to pay high interest rates by hand, the interest payment costs of large banks may go down, resulting in the loss of deposits to bank financial management and non-bank asset management products, and large banks may need to increase the issuance of certificates of deposit to fill the debt gap. Interbank certificate of deposit interest rates may still have room for upside.

Huaxi solid collection team believes that in May, the net supply of government debt may reach 1.2-1.5 trillion, which is more likely to have a crowding-out effect on certificates of deposit. From the perspective of the main line of the game, the capital and certificate of deposit interest rates in mid-to-late May may become the main expected difference, if it is still loose, it may catalyze a new round of trading market, otherwise it will be partial to the coupon.

Xu Liang, chief executive of Huafu solid Collection, also said that if the capital interest rate remains at the previous loose level in May, or if the central bank cuts the open market operating rate, then the certificate of deposit rate is likely to fluctuate at a level of about 2.1% or lower. At this point, you can focus on the opportunities for medium-and short-end bonds.

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