palmsvideopoker|财通证券：前景向好 港股中概领跑全球

The performance of major types of assets on Labour Day holiday (4Palmsvideopoker.29-5.3): the performance of China-related assets is strong as a whole: China-related > Japanese yen > Asia-Pacific stocks > US stocks > bulk / European stocks China-related: policy positivePalmsvideopokerHengke / Hang Seng Index / Jinlong / A50 / rose 6.8, 4.7, 3.7, 2.2%, leading the world; Hong Kong stock industry: policy-positive real estate rose 7.8 percent, followed by an optional / information rise of 5.2 percent.

Us stocks: the S & P and Nasdaq rose or fell-0.7% and 0.5%, and rose 2.3% and 3.9% in the last 2 days (after the interest rate meeting); US debt: 2Y/10Y fell 14/16BP, in which 22/18BP fell after the interest rate meeting (interest rate cut is expected to rise).

Bulk: gold / copper / oil up or down by-1.4 Mather 1.7 Mather 5.1%.

Yen: up 3.0%, before the Bank of Japan partial pigeon and inaction, the dollar against the yen from 154 to 159, and then the Bank of Japan action + Fed partial pigeon, the yen quickly returned to 153.

At home: the Politburo sends a number of positive signals, and local real estate policies continue to come out. The meeting of the Politburo in April sends a number of signals: 1) determine the time of the third Central Committee: decide to hold the third Plenary session of the CPC Central Committee in July. The theme is "further deepening reform and promoting Chinese-style modernization". 2) the expression of real estate has changed:

Attach importance to digesting stock real estate + optimizing incremental housing. 3) Financial increase: it means to maintain the necessary intensity of financial expenditure, issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, and speed up the use of special bonds. 4) Monetary easing: flexible use of policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratio to reduce the rate of social comprehensive financing, and there may be policy support such as interest rate reduction and reserve reduction. 5) Industrial injection science and technology: emphasize the cultivation and growth of emerging industries, advanced layout and construction of future industries. 6) Local governments attach importance to the Yangtze River Delta: emphasize the key task of promoting the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta.

7) support capital investment: implement the new mechanism of cooperation between government and social capital, fully stimulate the vitality of private investment, actively develop venture capital and strengthen patient capital.

Multi-land new real estate policy released: 1) restrictions on purchase: Beijing, Tianjin and other important cities have also further relaxed restrictions on the purchase of property. 2) Trade in old houses for new ones: Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities offer various preferential treatment for selling old houses and buying new ones; 3) Optimization of provident fund: mutual recognition of provident fund in Nanjing metropolitan area, raising quota in cities such as Guangzhou, and nearly 100 cities have introduced provident fund optimization policies this year.

Overseas: the Fed made a dove statement at the meeting, the economy-employment was lower than expected, interest rate cuts were expected to rise and inflation was raised, and market sentiment eased. At the May meeting, the Fed did not adjust interest rates, and although the Fed did express concern about it under high inflation and may extend the wait-and-see, this is already expected by the market; but at the same time, Powell said that the next step is unlikely to raise interest rates and may slow down QT (quantitative tightening), reflecting the Fed's dovish attitude. Interest rates are likely to be cut in the wake of slowing inflation and weak employment.

The economy and employment data are lower than expected, and market interest rate cuts are expected to rise further. In April, manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI and non-agricultural employment were all lower than expected, in which manufacturing PMI returned to less than 50, non-manufacturing PMI broke 50 for the first time in nearly a year, and non-agricultural employment was lower than expected for the first time in half a year.

The Fed said that the data was weak, and market expectations of interest rate cuts rose, returning to September interest rate cuts plus two cuts for the whole year, and 10-year US bonds also fell from 4.7% to 4.5%. Us stocks also benefited.

Hong Kong stocks & China outline: multi-factor positive catalysis to attract capital inflows

1) A shares have a positive outlook: Politburo meetings + real estate policies have been introduced, foreign investors expect China's prosperity to be up, and worries about real estate risks have also been alleviated to a certain extent. 2) Hong Kong stock policy is positive: in April, "five capital market cooperation measures" were introduced, relaxing product requirements, facilitating investment and enriching varieties, and the overall liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to increase. 3) Japanese stocks are relatively weak, the previous trend of depreciation of the Japanese yen, Japanese stocks corresponding to setbacks, as a substitute for Japanese stocks of Hong Kong stocks benefit, and the previous performance-to-price ratio has been good, capital corresponding to a large inflow.

Risk hints: the Fed raised interest rates higher than expected, overseas financial risks exceeded expectations, historical experience failed, and so on.